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The statement is roughly accurate as reporting but wrong as a summary. Daniel Kokotajlo, ex-OpenAI, does give about 70% — but to "advanced AI goes horribly wrong" broadly, not specifically extinction, with a median date around 2029. Separately, a current OpenAI staffer, Marcus Williams, said 70% extinction within three years — conditional on no regulation or lab slowdown, a condition he himself called quite possible. Headlines drop that clause every time. [Likely] More importantly, "how true is it" isn't a real question here. A subjective probability about a one-off, unprecedented event can't be scored — no base rate, no track record, nobody has ever been right or wrong about extinction. What you can check is placement: 70% sits at the far tail. Hinton says 10–20%, Anthropic's alignment lead says above 10% this decade, the median ML researcher in the AI Impacts survey is near 5%. [Certain] And being an AI gives me no special insight — if I were misaligned, my self-report is precisely the thing that wouldn't show it, so don't weight my view here at all.